Police forecast in criminal phenomena and system of strategic anticipation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22335/rlct.v10i1.515Keywords:
theft, location, violenceAbstract
The objective of this article is to analyze the typology of business thefts, registered in Bogotá during the years 2016 and 2017. The research follows a quantitative approach, transversal longitudinal design, with technique for time series, factor analysis and classification. The sample consists of 7645 cases of theft. Results: with an average number of thefts of 365 cases per month, the prevalence identified in the study was 20%, and was more frequent in January. Risk factors for the victims were: locality (χ2 = 10.579, p = 0.000, OR1.86, IC95% 1.82-4.5), use of weapon (χ2 = 31.23, p = 0.000, OR5.79, IC95% 2.9-11.4 ); Most frequent causes of victimization are related to weapon use (28.6%), place of occurrence (16.2%), time zone (6.8%), causes that generate the highest probability of being robbed.
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